March 04 2025

Reef Daily

Reef Daily | March 04 2025

Housing Market Update

Latest Market Data (March 4, 2025) National home price growth remains flat on a monthly basis, with annual growth tracking just above inflation according to CoreLogic's March 2025 Home Price Insights report released today. Their analysis suggests Florida markets are continuing to fall out of favor while western New York is gaining popularity, with economists anticipating further price deceleration through 2025. Florida and Arizona currently top the charts for markets where the risk of price decline is very high. This regional shift comes as the total available inventory of single-family homes nationally dipped to 639,000 units, though this figure still represents a 28% increase compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the unsold inventory of condos and townhomes stands 33% higher than last year at 193,000 units nationwide.

In fresh data released today, TeamSecundy RE/MAX Properties reports 429 new active listings (357 new plus 72 back on the market), with 181 homes going under contract and 2,011 pending sales. Their data shows 389 homes were taken off the market (withdrawn, canceled, or expired), resulting in a net inventory growth of 40 properties. The latest median price of newly pending contracts stands at $389,900, up 1% for the week and 2.6% greater than a year ago. Price reductions continue to increase, with 33.7% of homes on the market having received a price cut (up 50 basis points over the week).

Mortgage Rates

Current rates as of March 4, 2025:

Type	Today's Rate	Last Week's Rate
30-year fixed	6.75%	6.93%
15-year fixed	6.04%	6.27%
5/1 ARM	6.15%	6.23%

Mortgage rates remain elevated at 6.74% according to today's market data, continuing to influence buyer behavior and seller pricing strategies across the country. While rates have been easing down slightly as we enter March, the real-time home sales data does not yet show a significant buyer response to these modest rate improvements.

Notable Transactions

Commercial Highlights The Appraisal Institute announced a significant partnership with Commercial Real Estate Exchange, Inc. (Crexi) today to provide AI members with discounted access to extensive commercial real estate data, including verified sales comparables and market reports. This arrangement will help commercial appraisers gain access to another robust data source, creating efficiencies in the valuation process and enhancing their ability to produce well-supported appraisals. "This agreement with Crexi aligns with our mission to equip AI members with the best tools and resources available to appraisal professionals," said Paula K. Konikoff, JD, MAI, AI-GRS, 2025 President of the Appraisal Institute.

A notable transaction issue was reported in the past 24 hours involving a buyer who signed closing documents on February 28 but is now refusing to transfer the necessary funds to complete the purchase. The seller, who has already relocated for work, had fulfilled all responsibilities including completing agreed-upon repairs. This situation highlights the importance of secure closing procedures and potential challenges that can arise even after documents are signed.

Market Indicators

Inventory Trends New listings dipped for the second consecutive week according to data released today, with possible weather effects contributing to this trend. Despite this temporary decline, analysts expect to see a jump in new listings volume in next week's data. Currently, there are just over 53,000 new unsold listings nationwide, plus another 10,000 new listings that sold immediately, representing 2% more unsold new listings but 5% fewer sellers overall compared to the same period in 2024.

The overall markets show significant regional variation in inventory. For example, 36% of all condos and townhomes for sale in the United States are located in Florida (70,000 of the 194,000 total units). The inventory of condos grew by about 1% in the latest data, while single-family inventory shrank slightly.

Economic Indicators The broader economic environment showed concerning developments in the past 24 hours, with over $1.77 trillion wiped from the US stock market yesterday, marking the worst trading day of 2025. Additionally, the Atlanta Fed revised its Q1 2025 GDP growth estimate further downward from -1.5% to -2.8% on March 3, representing a significant drop from an initial estimate of +3.9% just four weeks prior. This economic contraction could have ripple effects throughout the real estate market in coming weeks.

Regional Developments

Western New York CoreLogic data released today indicates that western New York markets are gaining popularity while Florida markets continue to fall out of favor. This regional shift could represent an important emerging trend for investors and professionals focused on market entry and exit timing.

Florida Florida continues to show signs of market correction with CoreLogic identifying it as one of the states where the risk of price decline is very high. The state currently accounts for 36% of all condos and townhomes for sale in the entire United States, with 70,000 units on the market. This concentration of inventory in one state represents a potentially significant oversupply situation that real estate professionals should monitor closely.

Denver and Boulder, Colorado These markets are experiencing price reductions of 3% to 5% as homeowners compete for buyers in a cooling regional market according to data released today. This adjustment reflects a broader pattern of seller price concessions in markets where buyer leverage has increased.

Sources

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.