March 11 2025

Reef Daily

Reef Daily | March 11 2025

Housing Market Update

Latest Market Data (March 11, 2025) The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest statistics on new residential sales, revealing significant shifts in the housing market for January 2025. New single-family home sales were reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 units, marking a 10.5% decrease from the revised December 2024 rate of 734,000 units. This figure is also 1.1% lower than the January 2024 estimate of 664,000 units, underscoring continued fluctuations in the housing market.

Despite the drop in sales volume, new home prices saw an upward trend, with the median sales price for new homes in January rising to $446,300, marking a 7.5% increase from December 2024's median price of $415,000. Year-over-year, the median sales price climbed 3.7% from January 2024's level of $430,400.

A fascinating trend revealed in a new Zillow study released yesterday shows buyers are willing to pay nearly 4% more than expected for homes that are already remodeled (specifically 3.7% more)—an additional $13,194 on a typical U.S. home. This represents the highest sale price premium of all 359 listing keywords examined. The study indicates that remodeled listings received 26% more daily saves and were shared with buying partners 30% more often than similar non-remodeled homes. This marks a dramatic shift, as just a year ago, the term "remodeled" only contributed to a 0.8% sale price premium, indicating a 450% increase in buyer preference for move-in ready properties.

Mortgage Rates

Current rates as of March 11, 2025:

Type	Today's Rate	Last Week's Rate
30-year fixed	6.72%	6.75%
15-year fixed	6.00%	6.04%
5/1 ARM	6.14%	6.15%

Average mortgage rates are roughly steady week over week as of today, March 11, 2025, amid the week's stock market tumble and building recession fears. The current average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.72% for purchase and 6.69% for refinance, down 3 basis points from 6.75% for purchase and 6.72% for refinance compared to last Tuesday. Rates on a 15-year mortgage have decreased to an average of 6.00% for purchase and 5.99% for refinance, down 4 basis points from 6.04% for purchase and 6.03% for refinance over the past week.

Economists are keeping a close eye on tomorrow's consumer price index, which will provide key insights into the economy that are likely to influence Federal Reserve policy decisions at next week's meeting. The most recent dip in rates comes just as the peak homebuying season heats up for spring, potentially creating opportunities for buyers in the market.

Notable Transactions

Commercial Highlights JLL Income Property Trust announced yesterday the sale of an 80,000 square foot light industrial/flex property located at 237 Via Vera Cruz in the San Diego submarket of San Marcos, CA. This disposition aligns with the company's long-term strategy of harvesting gains and reinvesting capital into sectors and markets positioned for higher returns. The property, which was acquired in 2021, sold at a price that generated what JLL described as "an attractive internal rate of return" during their three-year hold period. Even after this disposition, JLL Income Property Trust maintains a significant industrial portfolio of $2.0 billion across 57 properties, comprising 32% of their $6.6 billion diversified portfolio.

Regional Activity In Camden County, 39 residential property transactions were reported between March 3 and March 9, with the median sale being a 1,586-square-foot home on Franklin Circle in Somerdale that sold for $289,000. Notable transactions included a $735,000 sale of a 2,148 square-foot property in Collingswood and a $619,500 sale for a 1,558 square-foot home, also in Collingswood, indicating strong per-square-foot values in that area.

In Hopkinton, recent transactions included the March 6 sale of a property at 7 Bullmoose Run for $1,060,000, and a condominium unit at 5 Turnbridge Lane that sold for $600,000 the same day. Additionally, a property at 84 East Main Street sold for $445,000 on March 4.

Market Indicators

Inventory Trends The seasonally adjusted estimate for available new homes at the end of January stood at 495,000, representing a 1.4% increase from December 2024's revised estimate of 488,000. Year-over-year, inventory levels rose 7.4% from January 2024's figure of 461,000 units. At the current sales rate, the supply of new homes increased to 9.0 months, up from 8.0 months in December 2024 and 8.3 months in January 2024. This expanded inventory provides potential buyers with more options but may also indicate a slower pace of sales in the current market environment.

Economic Outlook The broader economic context is showing signs of stress, with U.S. stocks continuing their decline yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by approximately 400 points (about 1%) on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq continued its decline following its worst performance in two and a half years. This market volatility, coupled with concerns about potential tariffs and their economic impact, has led to increased discussion about recession possibilities, which could significantly affect real estate market dynamics in the coming months.

Regional Developments

In Atlanta, multiple Reddit discussions from yesterday highlight a slowing townhome market, with posts indicating price decreases from mid-2024 levels. One property owner reported reducing their townhome price from an initial listing of $530,000 in November 2024 to $450,000 in March 2025, following bi-weekly reductions of $10,000 based on realtor advice. Comments from other Atlanta property owners suggest this trend may be regional, with townhomes in North Atlanta reportedly selling better than those in East, South, and West areas.

Sources

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.