March 19 2025

Reef Daily

Reef Daily | March 19 2025

Housing Market Update

Latest Market Data (March 19, 2025) US building permits slightly exceeded expectations at 1.456M as reported yesterday, surpassing the forecast of 1.453M and indicating potential resilience in the housing sector. The RE/MAX National Housing Report released yesterday shows February home sales increased 8.4% over January, though this is about half of the month-to-month average sales increases seen in the previous two Februarys. The median sales price reached $423,000 in February, just $3,000 (0.6%) higher than January and nearly $13,000 (3.1%) more than a year ago.

Construction Activity US single-family homebuilding rebounded sharply in February amid milder winter conditions, with single-family housing starts surging by 11% according to yesterday's Census Bureau report. However, permits for future single-family construction fell by 0.7% to a rate of 992,000 units in February, and permits for multi-family construction decreased by 4.7%, contributing to an overall decline in permits by 1.5%. The National Association of Home Builders estimated on Monday that "the typical cost impact from recent tariff actions is approximately $9,200 per home," which is affecting builder sentiment.

Mortgage Rates

Current rates as of March 19, 2025:

Type	Today's Rate	Last Week's Rate
30-year fixed	6.72%	6.68%
15-year fixed	5.99%	5.97%
5/1 ARM	5.94%	5.94%

The states with the lowest 30-year mortgage rates today are Florida, Utah, New Jersey, New York, Texas, California, New Mexico, and Ohio, with rates between 6.77% and 6.81%. After a seven-week falling streak, mortgage rates reversed course, with the average 30-year fixed home loan rate increasing from a 2025 low of 6.50% recorded nearly two weeks ago.

Future Forecasts According to analysts reported yesterday, mortgage rates are expected to remain above 6.5% for most of the year, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to hold interest rates steady at its meeting concluding today. Investors are closely watching the Fed's interest rate forecast, as sticky inflation, increased unemployment, and slowing economic growth could force the Fed to cut rates in late spring or early summer.

Notable Transactions

Commercial Highlights A commercial property at 178 Main St., Brownsville sold for $2,080,000 on 1.92 acres, representing one of the highest-value transactions recorded in the Lebanon/Sweet Home region in the past day.

Regional Activity In the Lebanon, Sweet Home, and Brownsville areas, multiple residential transactions were recorded yesterday with an average price point of approximately $350,000 for single-family homes. Notable transactions include a 18.29-acre property with a 2,472 sq. ft. home in Lebanon selling for $730,000 and a 2.11-acre property with a 1,568 sq. ft. home selling for $720,000.

Market Indicators

Inventory Trends Inventory increased 2.9% in February compared to January according to the RE/MAX report released yesterday, marking the 10th increase in the past 12 months, and is now 33.9% higher than a year ago. However, new listings dropped 3.0% from January, in contrast to January's significant climb of 53.7%. The Pikes Peak MLS reported yesterday 413 new listings and 64 homes returning to the market for a total of 477 new active listings for the week.

Buyer Demographics The RE/MAX report issued yesterday indicates buyers paid 99% of asking price in February, up from 98% in January, suggesting stronger buyer commitment despite longer selling times. Days on Market dropped to 51 days in February after rising to 56 in January, though homes are taking six days longer to sell than a year ago.

Regional Developments

South In South Florida, a report released yesterday highlights the disappearance of affordable starter homes, with 24% of Palm Beach County homes sold last year going for $1 million or more. Miami-Dade County saw similar trends with 23% of homes selling for seven figures. Palm Beach experienced a 56% increase in million-dollar transactions this past December, with cash transactions dominating the market—West Palm Beach topped the nation with 49.6% of property sales made in all cash.

West Idaho continues to face significant affordable housing challenges according to a report released yesterday, with many renters allocating more than 30% of their earnings toward housing costs. Colorado's Pikes Peak region reported yesterday 171 homes under contract, 223 pending, and 3 UC short sales, for a total of 397 homes off the market, with 264 homes sold this week, down from 281 the previous week.

Midwest Zillow's forecast released yesterday predicts existing home sales will total 4.1 million transactions in 2025, marking a mild increase of 1.1% compared to 2024. Despite this modest growth projection, ongoing high mortgage rates are expected to keep sales below pre-pandemic levels throughout the region.

Northeast According to the RE/MAX report released yesterday, Hartford, CT recorded one of the biggest decreases in new listings year-over-year at -22.3%, but had the second-highest close-to-list price ratio at 102.3%, indicating strong demand for limited inventory. The Northeast continues to see competitive market conditions with Baltimore, MD, Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia, PA recording the lowest days on market at 19, 22, and 22 days respectively.

Sources

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.