March 20 2025

Reef Daily

Reef Daily | March 20 2025

Latest Market Data (March 20, 2025)

Existing-home sales increased 4.2% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million, though down 1.2% year-over-year
Median existing-home price rose 3.8% from February 2024 to $398,400, marking 20 consecutive months of year-over-year price increases
Housing inventory climbed 5.1% from January to 1.24 million units (17% higher than a year ago)
Current supply represents 3.5 months at the current sales pace
New listings increased 5.5% year-over-year, biggest increase in six weeks
First-time buyers comprised 31% of February sales, up from 28% in January and 26% in February 2024

Regional Sales Data

West: Sales jumped 13.3% in February to an annual rate of 850,000, identical to a year ago
South: Sales increased 4.4% to an annual rate of 1.91 million, down 4.0% from one year before
Midwest: Sales remained unchanged at an annual rate of 1 million, up 1.0% from prior year
Northeast: Sales decreased 2.0% to an annual rate of 500,000, up 4.2% from February 2024

Current rates as of March 20, 2025:

Future Forecasts

Federal Reserve maintained federal funds rate at 4.25-4.5% on March 19, the second consecutive meeting without a change
Officials still project two rate cuts in 2025 despite increased uncertainty
Fed reduced quantitative tightening by decreasing Treasury securities roll-off from $25B to $5B monthly
Chair Powell stated that tariff-driven inflation effects may be "transitory" and mostly limited to this year

Commercial Highlights

Sagard Real Estate acquired 270-unit Grande Oaks apartment community in Roswell, GA, planning a value-add renovation program including upgrading 121 units
Heritage Portfolio (5 apartment complexes, 346 units) sold for $24.34 million in Greenwood County after being owned by Heritage Company for over 40 years
Shopoff Realty Investments acquired 13.75-acre property in Buena Park, CA for residential redevelopment with city support for re-entitlement

Development Activity

Bosa Properties revised Cohen Block proposal in Vancouver, doubling height to 40 storeys
Texas Senate Bill 15 passed with a 28-3 vote, prohibiting cities from imposing minimum lot sizes exceeding 1,400 square feet for new developments

Economic Forecasts

Fed revised GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%
Inflation projection increased to 2.8% for 2025, up from 2.5% in December forecast
Consumer inflation expectations jumped from 4.3% to 4.9%

Employment Data

Initial unemployment claims increased by 2,000 to 223,000 for week ending March 15
Continuing claims rose by 33,000 to 1.892 million for week ending March 8
Layoffs remain historically low and labor market is considered stable
Fed Chair stated that "conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance"

Policy Updates

Texas Senate Bill 15 aims to address housing affordability by prohibiting minimum lot sizes exceeding 1,400 square feet in cities with populations over 90,000 in larger counties
Peter Thiel warned of a looming real estate "catastrophe" affecting younger and lower-middle-class Americans, advocating for zoning reform to address housing affordability
Bill sponsor Sen. Paul Bettencourt stated: "With housing expenses soaring and Texas experiencing a deficit of 306,000 homes, we must take action!"

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.