March 28 2025

Reef Daily

Reef Daily | March 28 2025

Latest Market Data (March 28, 2025)

Pending home sales rose by 2.0% in February 2025, with the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) increasing to 72.0
On a year-over-year basis, pending transactions fell by 3.6% nationwide
Monthly mortgage payments reached an all-time high of $2,807 in the four weeks ending March 23, up 5.3% from a year earlier
The median sale price for a typical U.S. residence reached $383,750, up 3% year-over-year, according to Redfin
Personal income increased 0.8% in February, exceeding the forecast of 0.4%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4% for the month, falling short of the 0.5% projection

Current rates as of March 28, 2025:

Future Forecasts

NAR projects mortgage rates will average 6.4% in 2025 and decrease slightly to 6.1% in 2026
The Fed expects any inflation related to tariffs to be "transitory," potentially limiting mortgage rate increases
Mortgage rates are forecasted to trend down modestly from current levels according to multi-analyst commentary from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Commercial Highlights

A venture of Cortland and Pamera North America paid $152 million ($364,508/unit) for the 417-unit Peace Raleigh Apartments in downtown Raleigh, NC
Prologis Inc acquired a 232,500-square-foot industrial property in Chantilly, VA for $76.5 million ($329/sf)
A SoCal community was purchased for $71 million, last trading more than three decades ago
VennPoint secured $55 million financing for a Chicago-area build-to-rent project with Bank OZK as one of the lenders

Regional Activity

Sagard purchased a Georgia apartment community from Starwood Capital Group
A joint venture of Bridge Investment Group and Gravel Road Partners acquired a Tampa-area apartment community
Jonathan Rose Companies acquired affordable housing properties in Michigan and Connecticut, preserving their affordability

Inventory Trends

California housing inventory surged by 44% in February compared to a year ago, marking the fourth-largest yearly rise among U.S. states
San Diego experienced a 61% increase in active listings compared to a year prior
New home listings increased by 7.3% year-over-year nationwide, marking the most significant rise so far this year

Price Indicators

The PCE price index for February increased 0.3% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year
Core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) increased 0.4% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, higher than expected
The median asking price was noted at $424,985, reflecting a 6.3% year-over-year increase nationally

Midwest

Five of the ten hottest neighborhoods in 2025 are located on the outskirts of Midwestern cities according to Redfin's newest report
Jenison, Michigan saw an 11% year-over-year increase in home sales and 139% increase in median views per listing
Campton Hills, Illinois experienced a 38% year-over-year increase in home sales and 133% increase in listing views
Franklin, Wisconsin saw a 25% year-over-year increase in home sales and 129% increase in listing views

Northeast

Prospect Heights, New York saw a dramatic 105% year-over-year increase in home sales and 136% increase in median views per listing
Fairport, New York experienced a 48% year-over-year increase in home sales and 127% increase in listing views
Great Kills, New York saw a 19% year-over-year increase in home sales and 121% increase in listing views

West

California markets may have reached an "affordability wall" regarding home prices, with San Diego's median listing price in February surpassing $948,000
Three California cities—San Diego, Sacramento, and San Francisco—reported annual decreases in median list prices per square foot in February
San Francisco experienced the most significant drop at 7.3%, followed by San Diego with a 2% decline, and Sacramento at 1.3%

South

Bowie, Maryland saw a 31% year-over-year increase in home sales and 140% increase in median views per listing
The Department of Housing and Urban Development rescinded the ability for non-residents to qualify for FHA-backed loans, effective immediately with full implementation on May 25

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.