April 11 2025

Reef Daily

Reef Daily | April 11 2025

Latest Market Data (April 11, 2025)

U.S. foreclosure activity increased in Q1 2025, with 93,953 properties having foreclosure filings, up 11% from the previous quarter. March alone saw 35,890 properties in foreclosure, up 11% from February and 9% from a year earlier.
March foreclosure starts totaled 25,070, representing a 10% increase from February and 8% from last year.
Metropolitan areas with the highest volume of foreclosure starts in Q1 included Chicago (3,789), New York City (3,566), Houston (3,046), Miami (2,028), and Philadelphia (1,985).
Zillow announced a policy to ban privately marketed homes on its platform, escalating an industry fight over "secret listings".

Construction Activity

Realtor.com's analysis released yesterday indicates the U.S. still faces a supply shortfall of 3.8 million homes despite 2024 completions growing to 1.6 million, the highest level in nearly two decades.
At the current construction pace, closing the national housing gap would take 7.5 years, with significant regional variations: 3 years in the South, 6.5 years in the West, 41 years in the Midwest, and minimal progress in the Northeast.

Current rates as of April 11, 2025:

Future Forecasts

New York Fed President John Williams indicated yesterday that tariffs are expected to increase inflation to between 3.5% and 4% this year, which could affect future mortgage rate projections.
Williams also forecasted that GDP growth will decelerate to slightly under 1% by the end of 2025, with unemployment potentially rising to between 4.5% and 5%.

Commercial Highlights

Orion Properties Inc. reported yesterday it has successfully leased approximately 425,000 square feet through a mix of new and renewed leases, featuring a weighted average lease duration of 7.7 years.
Orion completed sale of vacant properties totaling 287,000 square feet for $19.1 million ($66 per square foot), with two additional properties (211,000 square feet) under contract for $27.3 million.
A 15-year lease was signed for 46,000 square feet at Orion's Parsippany, New Jersey site, increasing occupancy to over 60%.
Ingram Micro Inc. finalized a 10-year lease for 160,000 square feet at a previously unoccupied Orion property in Buffalo, New York.

Regional Activity

In Nantucket, Massachusetts, a significant transaction was recorded yesterday with 35 Tennessee Avenue selling for $3,175,000. The property is 0.72 acres with a dwelling and had an assessed value of $3,078,500.
Also in Nantucket, 6 Daisy Way sold for $2,488,056, and 10 Bartlett Road sold for $1,525,000.
Several real estate experts in New York City reported yesterday that Trump's tariff initiative has already derailed some property transactions, with one deal falling apart just a week before closing due to tariff-related concerns.

Inventory Trends

The ban on privately marketed homes by Zillow announced today could impact how inventory is tracked and marketed across the industry.
Multiple Reddit discussions from yesterday indicate a surge in buying activity in high-cost living areas, with more bidding wars occurring than in previous years.

Economic Indicators

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released yesterday showed inflation eased to an annual rate of 3.4% in March, with prices declining by 0.1% compared to February. This marks the first monthly price drop since May 2020.
Analysts have warned that yesterday's CPI findings might represent the lowest point for inflation this year, as tariff increases could result in higher costs for imports and consumer products.
Gold mining companies showed strong pre-market gains today, with AngloGold Ashanti up 7.72%, Gold Fields Limited up 6.28%, and Harmony Gold Mining up 5.91%, potentially indicating investor flight to traditional inflation hedges.

Northeast

In New York City, tariff concerns have begun directly impacting real estate transactions, with a vice chairman at Savills reporting yesterday that a prospective tenant paused their lease agreement specifically citing tariff concerns.

Midwest

Devils Lake State Park in Wisconsin is still being considered for development, with plans possibly including a gas station, retail shops, and a boutique, according to information shared today.

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.