April 16 2025

Reef Daily

Reef Daily | April 16 2025

Latest Market Data (April 16, 2025)

Fannie Mae's expert panel has lowered its 2025 home price growth forecast to 3.4% nationally, down from the previous 3.8% forecast
The median pending home sale price this past week was $399,000, up just 2.5% compared to a year ago, indicating slowing price growth
New listings were up 10.3% year-over-year in early April, suggesting sellers may be trying to capitalize on their equity before a potential economic downturn
Active listings surged 28.5% last month from a year earlier according to Realtor.com data, though inventory remains historically low
Regional inventory levels vary dramatically, with Pennsylvania currently having roughly 40% fewer listings compared to 2019, while Illinois faces a 60% decline in inventory over the same period

Construction Activity

Tishman Speyer secured a $331M construction loan for a 40-story, 924-unit tower at 50 Hudson St. in Jersey City, with the waterfront residential project expected to be completed by 2028

Current rates as of April 16, 2025:

Future Forecasts

Recent tariff announcements that pushed mortgage rates above 7% could lead to price dips similar to those following interest rate spikes in 2022

Commercial Highlights

Apollo signed for 100K SF at 590 Madison Ave. in New York City, with the firm previously subleasing 71K SF from MetLife at Salesforce Tower
Amalgamated Bank is relocating to Global Holdings' 99 Park Ave. with a 94K SF lease, bringing that building to 99% occupancy following a $30M capital improvement program
The Carlyle Group continued its NYC self-storage acquisition strategy, purchasing a facility at 1-19 Remsen Ave. in East Flatbush for $50M, marking at least its sixth self-storage purchase in the five boroughs

Regional Activity

Northeast: RXR signed two leases totaling 30K SF at 477 Madison Ave. in Manhattan, with Treville Capital taking 18K SF and Fiera Capital signing for approximately 12K SF
Northeast: Ryco Capital sold 414 West Broadway in SoHo, comprising a 5-unit residential condo and a 3K SF retail condo, for $18.7M
West: In Alameda, CA, 14 properties sold between April 1-15, 2025, with a highest sale price of $2.45M and a median sales price of $1.25M (above the median list price of $1.12M)

Inventory Trends

Listings jumped between 44% and 68% in many large metro areas, including San Diego, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Washington, D.C.
The housing market is experiencing a significant middle-market gap, with limited inventory between low-end starter homes and high-end luxury properties

Economic Outlook

Goldman Sachs adjusted its US tourism revenue forecast, predicting a decrease of $90 billion in 2025 due to decreased travel and boycotts
International travel to the United States has declined by 10% year-over-year, with flight bookings from Canada for the summer tourist season down 70%
This tourism downturn could impact hotel chains significantly and potentially lead to $20 billion in losses for property owners of malls and retail spaces

Northeast

NYC office market vacancy rates fell to 18.4% in Q1 2025, with average asking rents now at $52.52 per square foot in Manhattan according to Cogent Realty Advisors' latest report
The Plaza District in Manhattan commands average asking rents of $66.61 per square foot, while the Upper East Side recorded the highest average rent at $111.89 per square foot

South

Florida is experiencing the largest price corrections nationally, with 20 of the 42 U.S. metros posting annual price declines located in the Sunshine State

West

Los Angeles market is showing more favorable conditions for homebuyers, with rising inventory giving buyers more options than in recent years
The Alameda, California market remains strong with sold homes fetching a median of $1.25M, approximately 11.4% above asking prices

Midwest

Rochester, New York is seeing notable price growth at 7.5% year-over-year, outperforming most markets nationally

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.