April 17 2025

Reef Daily

Reef Daily | April 17 2025

Housing Market Update

Latest Market Data (April 17, 2025) The Census Bureau released new residential construction data showing building permits in March 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,482,000, which is 1.6% above the February rate but 0.2% below March 2024 levels. Housing starts declined significantly to 1,324,000 in March, representing an 11.4% drop from February, though still 1.9% above March 2024. Single-family housing starts showed a concerning 14.2% decrease from February, falling to 940,000. Housing completions reached 1,549,000 in March, down 2.1% from February but 3.9% higher than March 2024.

Home prices across the US rose only 0.2% from February to March 2025, significantly less than the 1.1% increase seen during the same period last year. The year-over-year price gain has slowed to just 1.1% overall in March, down from 2.1% in February. According to the latest analysis, 14 metro areas are now experiencing year-over-year price drops, including Austin, Tampa, San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Orlando, Atlanta, Miami, Denver, Raleigh, Houston, Birmingham, and Charlotte.

Construction Activity D.R. Horton, the largest homebuilder in the U.S., reported a 15% year-over-year drop in net sales for its second quarter, falling short of analysts' predictions. The company cautioned that its crucial spring selling season has commenced slowly due to high mortgage rates and growing economic uncertainty, which have adversely affected consumer confidence.

Mortgage Rates

Current rates as of April 18, 2025:

Type	Today's Rate	Last Week's Rate
30-year fixed	6.83%	6.80%
15-year fixed	6.08%	6.02%
5/1 ARM	6.19%	6.01%

Future Forecasts Mortgage applications dropped 5% last week according to the latest data, reflecting economic uncertainty that is making potential buyers hesitant. Despite this, mortgage applications for home purchases remain 13% higher compared to the same week last year, indicating that the spring home buying season is showing some strength despite challenges.

Notable Transactions

Commercial Highlights The White Heron Theatre in downtown Nantucket sold for $9,485,000 from Nantucket Theatre Project LLC to Nantucket Performing Arts Center Inc on April 17, 2025.

Billionaire Ken Griffin sold two penthouse condos in Chicago on Tuesday (April 16) for a total of $15.9 million, resulting in an $8.79 million loss from his original purchase price. These sales are part of Griffin's ongoing divestment from Chicago following his relocation to Miami in 2022.

Regional Activity In Nantucket, a property at 3 Cornish Street sold for $3,500,000 and another at 4 Sunset Hill Lane sold for $3,200,000, as reported in transfers from April 10-17, 2025.

Tampa Bay reported significant declines in real estate activity, with single-family homes sales volume dropping 19.05% year-over-year to $509,931,828 and closings decreasing 13.64% to 899 properties. Condo sales in the region fared even worse, with volume plummeting 43.76% to $76,602,822 and closings down 29.70% to 187 units.

Market Indicators

Inventory Trends Unsold inventory is up by double-digit percentages compared to a year ago according to the latest data, providing more choices for prospective buyers than they've had in years. In Charlotte, the months supply of inventory has increased from 1.6 months in February 2024 to 2.3 months in February 2025, indicating a market transitioning from a strong seller's market towards a more balanced one.

Buyer Demographics Real estate expert Barbara Corcoran identified uncertainty as the "biggest problem" for the housing market in analysis released yesterday. She noted that more than two-thirds of Americans currently have 4% interest rates on their mortgages, significantly reducing their motivation to sell and move in the current high-rate environment.

Regional Developments

Midwest Chicago's luxury real estate market continues to face challenges as billionaire Ken Griffin nears completion of his exit from the city, having sold additional properties at a loss. Griffin cited Chicago's progressive policies, high crime rates, and governance issues as reasons for his departure in 2022.

South Charlotte's housing market remains dynamic with slight upward pressure on prices and increased inventory availability. The average home value in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia area is currently $377,967, with homes going under contract in around 34 days.

Tampa Bay is experiencing a particularly poor start to the selling season, with significant declines in both sales volume and number of closings across single-family homes and condos compared to 2024.

Sources

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.