Articles
Analysis of current market conditions, policy developments, and economic events as they unfold. Context and perspective on what matters now.
Explaining The AI Infinite Money Glitch
An analysis of the circular spending patterns between Oracle, NVIDIA, AMD, and OpenAI, and why this AI infrastructure boom could unwind if end-user demand doesn't materialize.
End The Fed? Why Calls to Cut Rates Miss the Point
Data-driven analysis showing how mortgage rates are primarily driven by 10-year Treasury yields and market expectations, not Fed policy rates.
Gold At The Crossroads
Analysis of gold's rise as a scoreboard for systemic dysfunction: Fed policy failure, fiscal unsustainability, and erosion of central bank independence.
CRE Distress & Bank Exposure: A Slow-Moving Crisis
Examining the growing stress in commercial real estate and its impact on regional banks, with office vacancies doubling and $1.2 trillion in debt maturing by 2027.
Current State of the U.S. Housing Market
The ratio of home buyers to home sellers has reached a historic low of 0.73, driven by unprecedented mortgage rate increases, surging home prices, and rising insurance costs that have fundamentally reshaped housing affordability.
Rise in Public Ownership
Intel's groundbreaking CHIPS Act deal marks the first time federal semiconductor funding has resulted in direct government ownership of a major U.S. corporation, potentially signaling a new era in American industrial strategy.
How Can We Balance The Budget?
Data-driven analysis of deficit solutions showing spending up, revenue flat, GDP growth down, requiring 8.4% spending cuts and 3.8% revenue increases to match 1980s levels.
Tariffs: Everything You Need to Know
A comprehensive analysis of tariffs, their history, impact on the US economy, and current policy proposals with insights from leading economists.
Do Rate Cuts Always Lead to a Lower 10-Year Treasury Yield?
Examining why Fed cuts 75 bps yet 10-year Treasury climbed from 3.6% to 4.3%, exploring fiscal dominance and bond vigilante risks.
The U.S. Housing Affordability Crisis: When Things Might Change
Deep dive into housing affordability showing only 21% of listings affordable for households earning $75-100K, with Fair Value Variable matching early 1980s crisis levels.
A Signal of Dystopian Wealth Concentration
Analysis of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and its systematic transfer of wealth from poor to rich, accelerating plutocratic capture of democratic institutions.
Is The U.S. National Debt a Problem?
Analysis of debt-to-GDP dynamics showing deficit spending exceeding GDP growth, with CBO projecting One Big Beautiful Bill adds $2.4 trillion over decade.
The Price of Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve
Examining parallels between Nixon-Burns 1970s Fed interference that led to 12% inflation and Trump's pressure on Powell, with Kevin Warsh as potential replacement.
When Real Estate Regulation Breaks Markets
A detailed analysis of how housing regulations in San Francisco and St. Paul demonstrate the unintended consequences of well-intentioned housing policies.
Where Did All The Margin Go? A Question Facing Homebuilders
Analysis of homebuilder margin compression from 2022 peaks, inventory reaching GFC levels, and growing concession reliance as unemployment risk looms.
Japan: A Signal of Things to Come
Analysis of Japan's 10-year JGB yield rising from 1.00% to 1.52% and why this matters for U.S. fiscal policy with world's highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 237%.
The Mispricing of Residential Real Estate
State-by-state analysis reveals homes must drop 29.3% on average or mortgage rates fall to 3.68% to return to 10-year affordability norms, with Connecticut requiring 37.3% price cuts.
The Demographic Debt Trap
Analysis of Japan's fertility crisis where two deaths occur per birth, creating debt-to-GDP spiral at 250% ratio, with lessons for U.S. immigration and fiscal policy.
When Mortgage Rates Doubled
Analysis of the unprecedented 137.6% mortgage rate surge in 2022—the sharpest increase since 1973—and its transformative impact on housing affordability.
Economic Hardship for Gen Z: A Data-Driven Analysis
An analysis of how housing, education, and childcare costs have outpaced income growth over the past thirty years, creating unprecedented financial challenges for young Americans.
An In-Depth View on Government Spending
A comprehensive analysis of federal spending patterns, including healthcare, Social Security, and defense, examining how $6.1 trillion in taxpayer dollars were allocated in 2023.
Impact of Treasury Issuances on the Yield Curve
An analysis of how U.S. Treasury issuances, projected to exceed $28.9 trillion in 2024, impact the yield curve and market dynamics.
A Historical Analysis of the Unemployment Rate
An examination of the unprecedented 13.9% year-over-year rise in unemployment, analyzing historical patterns and their implications for economic forecasting.
Over $500 Billion in Unrealized Losses at U.S. Banks
An in-depth analysis of the unprecedented $517 billion in unrealized losses in the U.S. banking system, examining causes, implications, and broader economic impact.
Brief History of Attempts to Ban U.S. Representatives from Trading
An examination of Congressional trading practices, from the founding of the nation to modern day attempts at reform, highlighting key controversies and legislative efforts.
The Federal Reserve Posts $150 Billion in Losses
An examination of the Federal Reserve's $154 billion in accumulated losses, analyzing the causes, implications, and future outlook for central banking operations.
Data Center Demand Forecasted to Grow 10% a Year Until 2030
Analysis of McKinsey's forecast for data center growth, examining market dynamics, key players, and technological infrastructure driving the expansion.
Extend and Pretend: How Banks are Avoiding Losses on Commercial Real Estate
An analysis of the growing trend of 'extend and pretend' strategies in commercial real estate lending, as banks face $1.1 trillion in mortgage refinancing challenges.
The Invisible Hand of Incentives
An examination of how market incentives shape narratives and create market noise, using the dairy farming industry as a case study in market dynamics.